The ionosphere is the monthly-median CCIR model (ITU-R P.1239), corrected in real time by live GIRO ionosondes. Each path gets an ITU-R P.533-style link budget with ITU-R P.372 noise, and the result is calibrated against WSPR reception data. Reliability is the probability that a path supports your chosen mode with your station.
It is still a model: sporadic-E is only known where an ionosonde sees it, and very long paths use a hop-by-hop approximation.
Validate the model against live WSPR data →